Consistent with techno-economic history, ARK’s forecast through 2030 suggests that the time to 10x will be ~30 years, nearly three times faster than the consensus forecast, as shown in the chart above by the purple dots. Admittedly, the x-axis scaling in the chart above is doing a lot of the work: the x-axis is scaled by log years until 2050, resulting in a clean regression against available historical data. Slight tweaks to that regression could change the timeframe for the acceleration in growth.
That said, we are comfortable with our forecast based on research suggesting that a small subset of the 14 technologies that we have modelled could deliver the acceleration in real GDP growth. Indeed, adaptive robotics and robotaxis alone could realise almost all of the transformational acceleration we are anticipating, as shown below.
![](https://europe.ark-funds.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Total-GDP-impact-1024x754.png)
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024. Based on data from Crafts 2004; McKinsey Global Institute 2017; O’Mahoney and Timmer 2009.4 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Other advances—notably in AI software, public blockchains, and multiomics—also could prove transformational for the economy, although macroeconomic statistics could fail to capture their impacts and will have to catch up with reality. In our view, a spate of technological breakthroughs is in the process of transforming not only the global economy but also financial markets.