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          Genomic Revolution

          From Animals To AI: The FDA’s New Policy Should Transform The Drug Development Process

          9 May 2025

          6 Min Read

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          Key Takeaways

          The FDA will phase out mandatory animal testing, favouring AI and lab-grown human cells to evaluate drug safety and efficacy.

          This shift should cut development time and costs, benefiting AI-driven biotech companies and expanding access to rare disease treatments.

          Companies using AI in drug discovery could see ROI improve 5x, with broader impacts on healthcare systems and patient outcomes.

          On 10 April 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a groundbreaking plan to phase out its longstanding requirement for animal testing in the development of monoclonal antibodies and other drugs.1 Instead, the FDA will encourage the use of “more effective, human-relevant” testing methods, including AI models and lab-grown human cell systems, to evaluate drug safety and efficacy.

           

          Innovation Leading The Way

          Since 1938, U.S. Federal law has mandated animal trials in drug development.2 Now, rapid advancements in AI, multiomics, and microphysiological systems have made possible—and preferable—the pursuit of more predictive pathways, as shown below in Gen 2 and Gen 3 methods. The FDA’s initiative should lower the time and money necessary to develop efficacious drugs for human trials, with positive implications for AI-forward biotech companies and the patients they seek to serve.3

           

          Valley of Drug Discovery Death

           

          The FDA’s initiative represents a transformative opportunity for biotech firms already leveraging AI in drug discovery and development. They are already using these sorts of techniques in earlier stages of the pre-clinical process and might be able to use some of those data to fulfil the new requirements. In addition, because these firms have streamlined preclinical processes, the removal of mandatory animal testing should accelerate their progression to clinical trials relative to conventional drug developers, as shown below.4

           

          Potential time reduction in getting to the clinic by eliminating animal testing from drug discovery process

           

          The FDA’s directive signals its commitment to innovative, predictive drug development methodologies. By reducing reliance on lengthy and costly animal studies, AI-powered and human-relevant approaches could lower drug development costs, accelerate time-to-market, and increase therapeutic effectiveness. ARK’s analysis, shown below, suggests that AI-developed therapeutics could boost returns on investment to more than 20%, a 5x improvement relative to the pharmaceutical industry’s current average research and development (R&D) returns of ~4%. Ultimately, the integration of AI throughout the drug pipeline process could reduce overall development costs by four-fold.5,6

           

          Druq debelopment retrun on invested capital

           

          Who Are The Main Beneficiaries?

          While AI-centric drug developers like AbSci, AbCellera, and Recursion Pharmaceuticals stand to benefit most immediately, the policy’s implications extend into the multiomics tools and programmatic biological space as well. Companies providing sequencing, single-cell molecular analysis, spatial transcriptomics, and other advanced multiomics tools should benefit as biopharma firms adapt workflows to accelerate and enhance AI-driven drug discovery.

          The benefits should extend beyond biotech to the healthcare system at large. Currently, only ~5% of rare diseases can be treated by approved therapies.7 The reason is clear: high costs focus drug developers only on markets with large addressable patient populations. As AI increases the efficacy of drug development, a higher percentage of rare diseases should become addressable. ARK estimates that AI could reduce the time to market by 50% and the odds of failure by another 50% at each stage of the development process, potentially enabling biotech companies to address 75% of the rare disease patient population profitably. As a result, the quality of patient lives should increase as the need for costly hospitalisations and outpatient healthcare declines.8,9

           

           

          Conclusion

          In summary, the FDA’s announcement heralds not only a regulatory shift but also the dawn of a new era for molecular medicine, one characterised by faster, more cost-effective, and more accurate drug development benefiting innovators, patients, and the healthcare system.

          References

          1

          U.S. Food and Drug Administration .2025. “FDA Announces Plan to Phase Out Animal Testing Requirement for Monoclonal Antibodies and Other Drugs.”

          2

          Zushin, P.H. et al. 2023. “FDA Modernization Act 2.0: transitioning beyond animal models with human cells, organoids, and AI/ML-based approaches.” The Journal of Clinical Investigation.

          3

          ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis draws on a range of external data sources, including Bunne et al. 2024 and Rood et al. 2024 as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.

          4

          These calculations anticipate that AI drug development efforts can reduce target-to-lead, hit-to-lead and lead optimization stages of development to less than 18 months in total, consistent with company commentary. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis draws on a range of external data sources, as of April 11, 2025, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.

          5

          Bunne, C. et al. 2024. “How to Build the Virtual Cell with Artificial Intelligence: Priorities and opportunities.” Cell. Rood, J. et al. 2024. “Toward a Foundation Model of Causal Cell and Tissue Biology with a Perturbation Cell and Tissue Atlas.” Cell.

          6

          10% discount rate. *Companies pursuing this strategy for drug development, though this does not imply that every asset the company has at that particular stage is worth that amount or that company return on R&D dollars will meet the modeled value. The information provided should not be used as the basis for any investment decision, and it should not be assumed that an investment any of the companies mentioned was or will be profitable. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis draws on a range of external data sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.

          7

          The percent of rare disease patients addressable assumes a required 15% return on R&D spend. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis draws on a range of external data sources as of April 13, 2025, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.

          8

          Including the costs of failures and cost of capital, ARK estimates that the cost to bring a drug to market using traditional processes today totals $2.4 billion. Using AI, $600 million or less is potentially achievable.

          9

          Maiale, R. 2025. “Top Clinical Research Organizations for Rare Diseases in 2025.” Precision for Medicine.

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